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NEWS

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Backing a winner has never been easier


ON THE RAILS, with MURRAY BELL
 
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Almost 60 per cent of odds-on chances have triumphed this season, led by champion sprinter Sacred Kingdom who has won five times at the restrictive odds of HK$15, $18, $14, $12 and $11. Photo: Kenneth Chan
Never mind the economy or rebates as a reason for the continued increase in turnover - take a bow Hong Kong punters because it is you and the quality of your prognostications which might well be the underpinning cause.

There are commentators who constantly bemoan how difficult the game has become, but the statistics say otherwise - backing a winner in Hong Kong has never been easier. In the 2007-08 season, the statistics show that you truly were competitive with your perennial nemesis, the Jockey Club takeout. There are three meetings still to run but punters have never been more accurate, certainly in the 11 seasons of statistics this column has on record.

The average odds about a winner this season are under HK$100 for a HK$10 bet for only the third time in that period and the average of HK$93.40 is well below the next lowest of HK$97.20 in 1997-98.

The figure for horses considered to be the collective best chances in their races - the horses paying HK$110 or less - were not a record but were slightly better than the long-term trend.

However, more favourites have already won this term than ever before and the percentage of winning favourites stands at 30.57 per cent - the highest recorded in those 11 seasons and well up on last season's 28.79 per cent, which was a record.

Furthermore, favourite punters and odds-on punters both had a remarkable year - going close to finishing square in each category, despite the 17.5 per cent disadvantage against the "house".

Odds-on punters are perennially the biggest percentage losers in racing. But this year almost 60 per cent of odds-on chances have saluted, sending their legions of followers to the payout windows often enough to finish only 1.88 per cent behind.

If losing almost two per cent doesn't sound like a reason to crack open the champagne, consider this - the next best year odds-on punters have had since the handover was losing 12.41 per cent in 1999-2000.

And, if those punters have been playing big enough to enjoy the 10 per cent rebates for high volume tickets, they have actually finished in front for the first time.

The story improved for punters who might have decided to blindly bet the same amount on every outright favourite. They lost only 12.27 per cent of their outlay - also the best result they have had.

Backing all that up is the fact that Hong Kong's racing finishes - touted some years ago as the most competitive anywhere - continued the drift away from ultra-competitive.

At the turn of the century, the deciding margin in races was less than half a length in around 40 per cent of contests. By 2003 that had slipped sharply and this year came in at just over 33 per cent of races. It is a statistic which does vary by as much as between four and five per cent year on year. figure is not the lowest since the handover but it was a drop on the past two seasons.

News was also good for racehorse owners as multiple race winners dropped. With 700 races run, there have already been a record 486 individual winners of at least one race. That means 42.2 per cent of the horses who ran this season were able to win at some point and that is a record level, too. The last time this number was even close to that was in 1999-2000, also a year where punters did a little better than average.

What does it all mean? Well, doubtless the Jockey Club's strenuous efforts to provide information of all kinds to its customers have not gone amiss. The past two years have seen the favourite - by definition, the public's outright choice to win the race - come out on top, which means Joe Public is picking them better than ever and is still improving.

With the rebates and a thriving economy lending a hand, the punter has more money at day's end and more confidence in the outcome.

 
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